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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 23/1105Z from Region 3017 (N13W28). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 22/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M40%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 158
  Predicted   24 May-26 May 158/156/154
  90 Day Mean        23 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%25%

All times in UTC

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