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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/1105Z from Region 3017 (N13W28). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May,
26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 22/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 158 Predicted 24 May-26 May 158/156/154 90 Day Mean 23 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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