Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/2010Z from Region 3038 (N15E06). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun,
22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 19/1024Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2950 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 144 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 138/134/125 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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