Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1539Z from Region 3055 (S16W52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 16/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul,
18 Jul, 19 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 176 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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