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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/1227Z from Region 3058 (N13E26). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 16/2115Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Class M45%45%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jul 166
  Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 160/160/150
  90 Day Mean        17 Jul 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  008/008-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm35%35%50%

All times in UTC

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