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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/1227Z from Region 3058 (N13E26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 687 km/s at 16/2115Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
17/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19
Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 166 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 008/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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