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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/2139Z from Region 3056 (S17W29). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 17/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 18/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
18/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3785 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one
(19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 152 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/008-009/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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