Viewing archive of Friday, 29 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/0730Z from Region 2996 (N25W53). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (30 Apr) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 May,
02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 29/0727Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/2124Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 29/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May)
and quiet levels on day three (02 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 124 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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