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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 26/0449Z from Region 3017 (N12W71). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (27 May) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 26/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 775 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M30%20%05%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 123
  Predicted   27 May-29 May 120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        26 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  012/015-015/018-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%25%
Minor storm10%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%50%30%

All times in UTC

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