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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 22/1623Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 21/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 129
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  007/008-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%30%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm25%10%35%

All times in UTC

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