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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/2210Z from Region 3038 (N16W47). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 24/1508Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 115
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  010/012-015/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%30%

All times in UTC

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