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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/2210Z from Region 3038 (N16W47). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 24/1508Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 115 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 010/012-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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