Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1402Z from Region 3040 (S12E16). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 24/2342Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 25/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
25/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2035 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 108 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/105/095 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 017/018-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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