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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0812Z from Region 3040 (S14E02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 km/s at 26/1230Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 25/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 102 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 013/015-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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