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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1805Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 23/0236Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 23/0231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 23/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 111 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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