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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/2346Z from Region 3056 (S14W87). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul,
24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1429Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 114 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 112/108/108 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 014/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 029/040-011/014-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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