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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 26/2122Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jun 098
  Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  015/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  009/012-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%10%

All times in UTC

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