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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 04/1333Z from Region 3050 (N18E30). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 04/1714Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 04/0414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 104
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 106/106/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  010/010-017/025-012/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%65%50%

All times in UTC

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