Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 31/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 31/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
31/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1374 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet levels on
day two (02 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 094 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 092/090/092 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 009/010-005/005-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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