Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0240Z from Region 3088 (S24W72). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (28 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
27/1157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 27 pfu at 27/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 128 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/122/120 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 014/018-020/028-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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