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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 28/1619Z from Region 3088 (S27W87). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (29 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 28/0734Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0924Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M55%35%35%
Class X25%10%10%
Proton50%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 252
  Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 126/120/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  020/030-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm70%50%25%

All times in UTC

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