Viewing archive of Monday, 29 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
29/1107Z from Region 3088 (S27W95). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (30 Aug) and expected
to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1410Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 29/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
29/0310Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (01 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 131 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 013/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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