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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
31/2309Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 01/0510Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 31/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 095 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 094/096/094 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 009/012-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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