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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/2254Z from Region 3056 (S16W57). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (21 Jul, 22
Jul) and likely to be low on day three (23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2115Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1915 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 133 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 130/130/120 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 019/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 017/022-017/022-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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