Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
16/0758Z from Region 3078 (S23W18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 15/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4862 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), active to
severe storm levels on day two (18 Aug) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (19 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 129 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 018/026-039/056-022/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 50% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 90% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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