Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 16/0758Z from Region 3078 (S23W18). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 15/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4862 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), active to severe storm levels on day two (18 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (19 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 129
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  018/026-039/056-022/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%25%
Minor storm25%35%35%
Major-severe storm05%50%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%01%05%
Minor storm15%05%15%
Major-severe storm50%90%75%

All times in UTC

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