Viewing archive of Monday, 15 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/1654Z from Region 3078 (S24W05). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 15/0127Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7575 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (17 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (18
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 131 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-016/022-025/038
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 70% | 85% |
All times in UTC
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