Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 July 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Jul 27 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Jul 2022	098	008
28 Jul 2022	097	007
29 Jul 2022	097	007

Bulletin

Only two C flares occurred over the period. The largest, a C8.5 flare, peaked at 15:35UTC from Catania group 84 (NOAA region 3060) as it was rounding the West limb. More recently a C3.5 flare peaked at 10:56UTC from the south east limb. All pre-existing regions were either stable or in decay and remained inactive (apart from the above C8.5 flare). The region that rotated further onto the north east hemisphere was numbered Catania group 1 (NOAA active region 3067) and is a simple bipolar region. The region that produced the C3.5 flare will rotate further onto the disk in the next day before it can be analysed. Another spot occurred in the south-western hemisphere, (numbered Catania group 99) but it remains to be seen if it persists. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains quite possible over the next days.

A filament eruption from the north-western quadrant close to the limb is visible in SDO AIA 304 images from around 5:28UTC. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph images to assess any possibly associated CME. But given its location it seems unlikely that any related CME would be Earth directed. No other Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly reached above the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels following a slow declining trend.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the equator just rotated across the central meridian in the reporting period. It may influence Solar wind from July 29 onwards. Slow Solar wind conditions are recorded. Solar wind is believed to be around 450km/s (despite the higher values indicated by DSCOVR earlier in the period, which are believed to be erroneous). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was between 5-7nT with a variable north-south orientation. The interplanetary magnetic field is connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Slow Solar wind conditions are expected over the next days. Any possible perturbations related to the coronal hole (that just crossed the central meridian) is not expected before July 29.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected in the following days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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