Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
27/1056Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 26/2131Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 098 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 098/096/096 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 007/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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