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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0211Z from an unnumbered plage region in the southern hemisphere. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 101
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%20%

All times in UTC

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