Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug,
26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 24/1641Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/0454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 108 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/108 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
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| Last 30 days | 162 +13.2 |