Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 August 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 24/1641Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 108
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/108
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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