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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/1122Z from Region 3102 (S26W26). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Sep 137
  Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 140/140/138
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-010/012-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%45%
Minor storm01%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%30%45%

All times in UTC

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