Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1122Z from Region 3102 (S26W26). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 137 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 140/140/138 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-010/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 29AR13889 22What devices are good for shooting aurora VIDEO with? 18Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1564AR 13883 224
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |