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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0702Z from Region 3107 (S24E60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 21/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/0334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Sep 137
  Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 140/138/130
  90 Day Mean        21 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  010/010-016/020-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%40%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%45%35%

All times in UTC

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