Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0702Z from Region 3107 (S24E60). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep,
24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 21/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
21/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/0334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (24
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 137 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 140/138/130 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 010/010-016/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 45% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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