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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/1134Z from Region 3105 (S17E32). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 420 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep) and unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 137
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 138/130/130
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  016/020-013/015-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%35%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%35%30%

All times in UTC

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