Viewing archive of Monday, 19 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0230Z from Region 3102 (S26W13). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 18/2326Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 128 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 008/008-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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