Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/1540Z from Region 3100 (S22W60). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 18/2013Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/0911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
18/1149Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 18/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 614 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 136 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 138/135/135 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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