Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/1432Z from Region 3112 (N23W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct,
17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 14/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 115 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 115/110/112 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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