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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 22 2245 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2022 CORIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/1409Z from Region 3085 (N30E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
There is a chance for C-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 22/0003Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/0032Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 097 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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