Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 17/2022Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
17/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/2005Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 275 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (20 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 132 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 012/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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