Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Sep 2022	126	007
18 Sep 2022	126	005
19 Sep 2022	126	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels once again with background C-class flaring and an impulsive M6.2-class flare, start time 15:49 UTC, end time 16:12 UTC, peak time 15:59 UTC on Sept 16th, produced by active region NOAA 3098 (beta-gamma) at the west limb. This region has now rotated behind the west limb, but remains the source of most of the flaring activity. Active region NOAA 3100 (beta) underwent slight decay and produced a single low C-class flare. Region NOAA 3102 (beta) exhibited slight development and produced a couple of low C-class flares. NOAA AR 3103 (beta) showed some diffusion and remained inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels in the next 24 hours with low chances for an isolated M-class flaring as NOAA AR 3098 rotated behind the west limb.

The bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun around 02:00 UTC on Sept 16th is expected to miss the Earth, but a minor glancing blow could possibly arrive on Sept 19th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be enhanced, remaining below minor storm levels in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below minor storm warning levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was well below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicated slow solar wind background. The solar wind velocity weakly varied in the range of 317 and 372 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 8.3 nT with a minimum Bz of -5.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly at slow solar wind levels as the expected high speed stream did not reach the Earth.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	111
10cm solar flux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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