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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/0433Z from Region 3068 (S15E45). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 29/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 759 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 093
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 093/093/090
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  007/008-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%10%
Minor storm05%15%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%50%15%

All times in UTC

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