Viewing archive of Friday, 12 August 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Aug 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Aug 2022	113	013
13 Aug 2022	114	010
14 Aug 2022	115	007

Bulletin

A number of C flares occurred over the period. The strongest was a C2.1 flare peaking at 10:20UTC from Catania group 9 (NOAA active region 3077) in which continued flux emergence was observed over the period. The other C1 flares were from near Catania group 8 (NOAA active region 3076) following the rapid flux emergence to the north of the region as reported yesterday. Two new bipolar regions seem also to be emerging around S11W03 and N15W30. The other regions on disc were stable. C class flaring is now considered likely over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain above or around the threshold in the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels with still a possibility of reaching high levels in the next 24 hours, but should then start to follow a slow decreasing trend.

The expected continuation of the high speed Solar wind conditions (Solar wind speed varying around 550km/s) has set through. Enhanced values of the interplanetary magnetic field were recorded, reaching over a peak of 10nT around midnight. Running up to that peak, the north-south component of the magnetic field was persistently southward, although not very strong (Bz reaching -7nT). Apart from some deviations around noon yesterday, the magnetic field orientation still shows clear connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours solar wind speed is expected to remain high with afterwards a decreasing trend setting in.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active periods (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp reaching 4) during the period of enhanced and southward oriented interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions have returned to quiet to unsettled and are expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels, with in the first 24 hours isolated active periods still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 25 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	081
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 34 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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