Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
01/1358Z from Region 3092 (S09E67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep,
04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 01/0553Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 116 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 116/118/118 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 009/010-012/015-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 65% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |