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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 130
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  012/015-021/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%40%
Minor storm15%40%25%
Major-severe storm01%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%65%45%

All times in UTC

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