Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 04 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Sep 2022	116	043
05 Sep 2022	116	028
06 Sep 2022	116	013

Bulletin

NOAA AR 3089 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration) has produced numerous C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C6.4 flare peaking at 03:02 UT. NOAA AR 3093 and 3094 (both beta magnetic field configuration) produced also minor C-class flaring. More C-class flares can be expected, and M-class flares are possible.

No Earth directed CMEs observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark, and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase due to the arrival of the high speed stream. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase due to the arrival of the high speed stream.

The Earth is inside the fast solar wind from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The speed has been increasing since yesterday to reach 680 km/s at present, with interplanetary magnetic field magnitude up to 12 nT, and with a Bz component between -5 and -10 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours (with probably lower magnetic fields). Furthermore, a glancing blow from the 2 September CME may occur tomorrow.

As a consequence of the high speed solar wind arrival, moderate storm conditions were observed at planetary levels (Kp up to 6) between 03 and 09 UT, while locally K_Dourbes reached 5. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	029
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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