Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2022	140	010
02 Oct 2022	145	039
03 Oct 2022	149	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flares observed were an impulsive M2 flare and followed by an M1 flare, from newly numbered NOAA AR 3112 near the north-east limb, peaking on September 30 at 16:11 UT and 17:35 UT, respectively. This region was responsible for most of the flaring activity. A number of C-class flares were produced by Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107), Catania group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) and Catania group 50 (NOAA AR 3111). Catania group 42 (NOAA AR 3105) has decayed and is about to rotate off the solar disk. Two new regions have emerged, one behind existing region Catania group 48, that has been numbers as NOAA AR 3113 and one in the south east, that is as yet unnumbered. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a chance for an X-class flare, particularly from NOAA AR 3112.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth was under the continued influence of a high speed stream, with solar wind values between 500 and 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased gradually from 10nT to 6nT. The magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced in response to a possible CME glancing blow on October 01 and the ongoing influence of the high speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3, local K-Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions for the next days, with moderate storm conditions possible on Oct 1 and 2.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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