Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
01/2010Z from Region 3110 (N17W38). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 01/1242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
01/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 148 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/028-015/022-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |