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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/2029Z from Region 3135 (N27E65). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 28/1942Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 28/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 28/1419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 129
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 128/128/125
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  017/020-018/028-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm65%70%50%

All times in UTC

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