Viewing archive of Monday, 12 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 12 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Sep 2022	151	007
13 Sep 2022	150	004
14 Sep 2022	150	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with twenty C-class flares. There are seven active regions on the visible solar disk, the most prominent being NOAA AR 3098 (beta-gamma), which has developed to be the largest and most complex active region and was responsible for the majority of the C-class flaring, including an impulsive C6.1-class with peak time 22:28 UTC on Sept 11th. The remaining low C-class flaring activity was produced by NOAA 3101 (beta), which underwent minor development over the past 24 hours. The remaining active regions are magnetically simple and remained either stable or exhibited gradual decay, expect for NOAA 3100 (beta), which underwent minor development, but showed no significant activity. The flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels with more C-class flares and some chances for isolated M-class flaring in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Following the flaring activity the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced in the past 24 hours and might reach minor storm levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to cross the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued their decline towards background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied in the range of 489 km/s to almost 378 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6 nT with a minimum Bz component reaching -4.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be at slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	127 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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