Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 28 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Sep 2022	138	009
29 Sep 2022	138	010
30 Sep 2022	140	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. Most of the C-class flares were associated with Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107) and by Catania group 42 (NOAA AR 3105), which are also the most complex regions on the disk. The largest flare that was a C5 flare, associated with Catania group 42, peaking on September 27 at 19:57 UT. Catania group 50 (NOAA AR 3111) and Catania group 48 (NOAA AR 3110), were quiet and relatively stable. Catania group 46 (NOAA AR 3108) decayed into a plage region as it approached the west solar limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A filament eruption was observed from the north-east quadrant in SDO/304 at 04:48 UT September 28 but from initial analysis is not deemed to be Earth directed. No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced but remained well below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of the high speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 and 610 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude gradually decreased from 20 nT to stabilize around 5 nT. Bz was mostly positive. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced over the next days, due to the ongoing influence of the high speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K-Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be mostly unsettled over the next days with active periods possible as the high speed stream continues to influence the Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	138
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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