Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Oct 2022	114	003
26 Oct 2022	118	003
27 Oct 2022	120	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels and infrequent, with two C-class flares detected over the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3126 (Catania group 68, magnetic type Beta) produced the brightest flare, a C2. A C1 flare was produced by an AR behind the solar limb, at S25W87. Although NOAA AR 3126 and 3130 (Catania groups 68 and 72, both with Beta magnetic type) have lost some of their magnetic complexity, there are still capable of producing C-class flares in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3131 (Catania group 74, Alpha magnetic type) has recently turned into Earth's view and there is a chance it might produce an isolated C-class flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

A small northern coronal hole of positive polarity crossed the central meridian yesterday. An associated high speed stream in in-situ Solar wind measurements is expected at 27 Oct.

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions featured a return to a slow wind regime, having experienced the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) since 23 Oct. The SW speed dropped from 550 to 390 km/s in the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) was weak, fluctuating between 4 and 1 nT, while its north-south component (Bz) varied between -3 and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (phi) angle was mostly negative (directed towards the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be typical of the slow wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K Belgium 1-2) over the last 24 hours. The are expected to remain quiet in the next 24 hours, since a new HSS is expected to arrive no earlier than 27 Oct.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	063
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	049 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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