Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
05/0207Z from Region 3112 (N22E21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 05/1627Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2952 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Oct) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 50% | 35% |
| Class X | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 161 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 158/156/154 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 010/012-009/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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