Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Oct 2022	152	009
06 Oct 2022	152	007
07 Oct 2022	152	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with one isolated M-class flare. The M1.6-class flare was produced by the Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta) on October 04 with a peak time at 13:15 UTC. The flare was associated with the Type IV Radio Emission, which usually occurs in association with major eruptions on the sun and is typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. The magnetically complex Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA AR 3112, beta- gamma-delta magnetic complexity) remained stable and produced several C-class flares. Two other C-class flares were produced by the Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 3116, beta) that emerged yesterday. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderated level with possible of isolated M-class flare.

The observed coronal mass ejection associated to the M1.6-class flare produced by Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta) is not expected to impact the solar wind condition near Earth. A filament eruption was observed in the south near the central meridian. The projected speed was estimated 578 km/s by the SIDC/Cactus tool. The main component of the coronal mass ejection observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 was in the south direction. A glancing blow of this filament eruption may slightly disturbe the solar wind condition on October 07.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and it is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under influence of a high-speed stream coming from coronal holes (positive polarity), with solar wind values between 480 km/s and 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around 3.0-8.0 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5.9 nT and 5.6 nT being mainly negative. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind condition is expected start to go towards an ambient background and slow solar wind speed regime today and tomorrow. It may be slightly enhanced due to the possible arrival of glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection from the filament eruption observed on October 04.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4) due to the prolonged periods of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic being negative. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	159 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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