Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 06 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Oct 2022	152	008
07 Oct 2022	152	016
08 Oct 2022	152	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at quiet levels with several C-class flares produced by Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta), Catania sunspots group 55 (NOAA AR 3112, beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity) and Catania sunspots group 56 (NOAA AR 3116, beta). The Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) is currently rotating over the west limb, but flare coming from this region may still be visible from Earth. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain quiet to moderated levels with C-class flare and possible of isolated M-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A glancing blow of the filament eruption observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 in south direction on October 05 may slightly disturbed the solar wind condition on October 07.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and it is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters showed a return towards an ambient background and slow solar wind speed regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 580 km/s to 436 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from about 8.0 nT to current values below 7.0 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7.3 nT and 6.8 nT being mainly negative. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Yesterday, on October 05, a small equatorial coronal hole (positive magnetic polarity) was facing Earth. The high-speed stream from this corona hole is expected to reach Earth on October 07. The solar wind condition is expected continued to go towards an ambient background and slow solar wind speed regime today. Then it is expected to be enhanced due to the combination of the possible arrival of glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection from the filament eruption observed on October 04, and the high-speed streams from the corona hole (positive magnetic polarity).

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4) due to the prolonged periods of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic being negative. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days due to the expected solar wind enhancement.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	167
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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